Coronavirus: The Sula Valley Case

This article was published on 04/12/2020

Updated on 05/07/2020 at 4:00 PM (Spanish peninsular time)

The alarm bells are ringing louder in the Sula Valley, growing ever more urgent. The COVID-19 crisis has transformed the region into a ticking time bomb. In Honduras, 7.5 out of every 10 people infected with the virus live in the Valley. The first case was reported on March 17, and as of now, the region has seen 1,267 confirmed cases.

CONTEXT

The Sula Valley is a region of Honduras comprised of 20 municipalities, which are part of four departments. It is surrounded by mountains and is crossed by the Ulúa, Chamelecón, and Humuya rivers. To the north, it borders the Caribbean Sea, and to the west, it borders Guatemala.

The regions are established by the Directorate of Territorial Planning, based on Decree No. 286-2009, Law for the Establishment of a National Vision and the Adoption of a National Plan for Honduras.

According to data provided by the Department of Land Use Planning, 2,239,032 people were registered in the region in 2018. The most populated municipality is San Pedro Sula, followed by Choloma, El Progreso, and Villanueva. Residents often commute to work in other municipalities, resulting in high traffic on main roads.

The Sula Valley is synonymous with industry, strength, and dynamism. It is the engine of the Honduran economy, generating approximately 60% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many industrial sectors employ in the region, including textiles, tobacco, tool manufacturing, plastics, and concrete. Large industrial parks and maquilas—massive spaces—are located in its municipalities.

And thanks to the excellent quality of its soils, agriculture has also played a leading role for decades. Rice, sugarcane, African palm, citrus fruits, staple grains, and more are produced. And of course, bananas. #BananaRepublic

Its natural beauty, and its geographical importance, cannot be overlooked either. It is the country's logistics center—international flights land there at Ramón Villeda Morales Airport, and large ships unload their cargo at Puerto Cortés, the most important port in Central America. The Sula Valley has become a bridge to various tourist destinations in the country, such as Copán Ruinas, the Bay Islands, and Tela.

However, not everything is positive. For several years, the major cities in the region have been affected by violence. From 2011 to 2014, San Pedro Sula was ranked as the most dangerous city in the world due to its high homicide rate. This issue contributes to the overall dynamics of the area, as entire neighborhoods suffer from a lack of peace and proper civic coexistence. While the region is prosperous, inequality persists. Additionally, another significant concern is that the Sula Valley is an alluvial plain, which is irrigated by rivers, making it highly susceptible to flooding.

NOW: THE CORONAVIRUS

On March 17, 2020, the first case of coronavirus was reported in the region: an Asian citizen from the United States. From that moment on, the Sula Valley began accumulating cases and quickly became the epicenter of the pandemic in Honduras. The context provided helps to understand why it has spread so rapidly.

It is important to emphasize that from April 6 to May 10, an absolute curfew was declared in the department of Cortés, including the municipalities of El Progreso, Yoro, Las Vegas, and Santa Bárbara.

Comparison of the evolution of cases in the national territory versus the Sula Valley

To facilitate this comparison, I added a region variable to the database. The only data required to obtain this information is the municipality. SINAGER provides this information for most reported cases. However, there are three cases recorded in the departments of Santa Bárbara, Yoro, and Atlántida that lack municipal information and may be associated with the Sula Valley; therefore, they were not included in this data visualization.

In the Cortés department, instances are lacking municipal information; however, according to the Land Use Planning Directorate, all municipalities in Cortés are part of the Sula Valley.

The graph shows that the regional trend of cases closely mirrors the national trend, which is alarming. In a few weeks, we may face a hospital collapse due to inadequate medical staff. With this foresight, the Government must take effective measures now to ensure optimal care for its citizens.

Number of cases per municipality in the Sula Valley

San Pedro Sula has the highest number of confirmed cases, indicating a clear correlation between its population size and the number of cases. However, it is important to note that there are 38 cases in Cortés, but no information is available about the specific municipality. This data is crucial for authorities to establish epidemiological measures in these areas. Additionally, it is essential to ensure that health centers in these municipalities are adequately prepared and equipped to handle the situation.

Number of cases by sex in each municipality

Sixty-two percent of confirmed cases in the Sula Valley are men. The majority of these men are between the ages of 30 and 39. It would be interesting to know what sectors these infected individuals work in, as this information could help explain why there is a significantly higher number of infected men.

About the deceased in the Sula Valley

In Honduras, 84.7% of COVID-19 deaths are from the Sula Valley. Residence information is available for 102 victims of the virus.

The coronavirus has disguised itself as an iceberg, and Honduras is like the Titanic heading straight for it. While it may be too late to change course, it’s not too late to ensure that as many people as possible can get onto lifeboats. These lifeboats will only be available if we explore human behavior research more deeply, as this will enable us to take preventative actions based on strategic planning and transparency.

Taking care of ourselves is the responsibility of all stakeholders: citizens, the private sector, and government officials.

Remember that you have full access to the database that I update every day at this link.

If you have any comments/observations, please feel free to write to me at vivianpavonf@gmail.com

VQV